Scientists assess the risks of radiation pollution and flooding of coastal buildings in case of natural disasters and man-made impacts
It has been 35 years since the Chernobyl accident, but humanity will have to overcome the consequences of this catastrophe for a very long time.
The impact of radiation on the environment is studied by many research centers in the world, but for our country this problem is one of the most relevant. Every high flood or fire in the exclusion zone carries risks both for people and the environment. To assess how serious they are, scientists from the Institute of Mathematical Machines and Systems of the National Academy of Sciences decided to create a modern modeling system for assessing the risks of secondary radiation pollution of Prypiat and Dnipro in case of natural and man-made disasters. Last year, the scientists submitted project “Forecasting the dangerous impacts of radioactively contaminated surface waters and shore flooding: Development of models and their implementation to reduce the consequences of emergencies in Kyiv caused by the Dnipro river” to the National Research Fund of Ukraine and won the call. The project is designed for 2020-2021, last year over 2 Mio UAH hryvnias were allocated for its implementation, in 2021 the funding will amount to 3 600 000 UAH.
The project supervisor, a senior researcher at the institute Mr. Roman Bezhenar, says: “Scientists have been trying to create this system for a long time, but there were not enough funds. And only thanks to winning the call and grant funding were they able to start the work. ”
Both the Chernobyl nuclear power plant and Fukushima-1
The consequences of the Chernobyl accident have been studied by scientists of the institute since 1986 – they study the problems of flooding, develop models for the spread of radionuclides, predict the danger of radiation etc. Methods of mathematical modeling developed by scientists are used to predict radioactive contamination of Dnipro, to assess the effectiveness of water protection measures in the exclusion zone etc. Their models are used in IAEA programs to model radiation pollution as well as in the development of mathematical models of RODOS in predicting the effects of pollution of water systems after the accident at the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant in Japan and South Korea.
The team includes specialists in mathematical modeling, hydrologists, hydrochemists, biologists, specialists in the atmospheric transport of radioactive aerosols. The scientists have experience in the exclusion zone fields and laboratory research on modern radiochemical equipment.
Calculate the danger for each house
The riverside area of Kyiv and country settlements on the banks of Dnipro regularly suffer from high floods. The risk of flooding exists every spring. At the state level, the Ukrainian Meteorological Center is responsible for zone forecasts. In cooperation with the Hydrometeorological Center, scientists from the Institute of Problems of Mathematical Machines and Systems developed a pilot version of the forecasting system a few years ago.
The calculation of each flood scenario has been taking a long time, and for early warning very quick forecasts are needed, that is why our team has recently developed a new technology for numerically solving the equations of such models for graphic processors. With its help it will be possible to make calculations for a flood zone in just 1-2h. The implementation of this development within the project became possible thanks to the NFDU funding.
Based on the data of measurements at the catchments of the Chernobyl NPP, Pripyat, Kyiv Reservoir, Dnieper and accordingly modified calculation models, scientists will provide forecasts for potential radioactive contamination and exposure of the population. In addition, the probable scenario in case of high floods in these reservoirs will be calculated. To this end, a unique system for forecasting water uplift in Kyiv (identifying areas, streets and buildings that may be flooded) during floods and an unlikely but discussed scenario of destruction of the Kyiv HPP dam will be developed.
How samples were taken
Mr Bezhenar told us, that in the fall of 2020, first of all, they organized expeditions to take samples. They were in a hurry, because they had to have time to close the navigation season. And they did it! At the end of October, the ship “Georgy Gotovchyts” went on an expedition to the Kyiv Sea. During the week, researchers were taking samples of water and silt from the bottom at various locations.
Simultaneously with the expeditions, the necessary equipment was promptly purchased: a powerful computer and a laptop with a new generation of graphics processors for testing models and forecasting systems.
The scientists plan to talk about the results of their research, in particular, at the conference of the European Geophysical Union EGU-2021, as well as at the forum “Problems of decommissioning of nuclear energy facilities and environmental restoration” INUDECO 2021, which will be held in Slavutych.
In 2021, the work on the project continues. Sample collection and research will continue while model tuning will be completed and forecasting systems will be established.
Risk management
Two operational divisions will become users of the system of modeling of radioactive contamination. These are the State Specialized Enterprise “Ecocenter” of the State Agency of Ukraine for Exclusion Zone Management, and the Center for Forecasting the Consequences of Radiation Accidents of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center.
The forecasting department of the Hydrometeorological Center will use the system for operative forecasting of flood zones. It will also be useful in the development of flood risk management plans ( in Kyiv as well as in other cities), development of new master plans for the development of the capital, etc.
After the project, scientists will present the system to the State Administration of Kyiv, explain the possibilities and prospects for its implementation. In the future, the system will be useful for the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, which is responsible for developing flood risk management plans.
By the way, Mr Bezhenar considers the opportunity to create multidisciplinary teams to be a huge advantage of NRFU competitions. He advises scientists who plan to submit their projects to the call to consider every single detail in the application.
– I believe that the level of funding provided by the fund is worth the time spent on preparing the application, signing the contract and reporting, – said Mr. Roman. – This is a great opportunity to implement your scientific ideas. If you have a really valuable idea and world-class research experience, you will definitely win.
Svitlana GALATA
