How Ukrainian scientists help to predict and overcome the consequences of COVID-19
In the spring of 2020, incredible news followed one another: “The EU is closing its borders”, “The plane to London turned in the air and returned to the city of departure”, “Passenger traffic stops in Ukraine”, “The metro stops in Kyiv”. Food establishments, hotels, travel agencies, cinemas, hairdressers, gyms are being closed … The country, along with the whole planet, is “pausing”.
From the first days of the pandemic, scientists of Sumy State University have decided: it is necessary to provide authorities at all levels the ability to make decisions based on scientific data, estimate possible patterns, as well as predict the consequences of lockdown. They have postponed all other projects and got to work. This is how the project “Economic-mathematical modelling and forecasting of the impact of COVID-19 on the development of Ukraine in the national and regional contexts: public health factors and socio-ecological-economic determinants” has appeared. In September 2020, the project (with the highest rating points!) won the competition “Science for Human Security and Society”, organised by the National Research Foundation of Ukraine and received funding in the amount of 300 000 UAH.
We have asked the project supervisor, the Head of the Oleg Balatsky Institute of Business, Economics and Management of Sumy State University Tatiana Vasilieva: why did the research group decide to apply for a short-term competition of science projects? Was it difficult to win? As well as, from what point the research group had started their work?
– The fact is, that longer-term projects usually have bigger budgets, as well as opportunities, – said Tatiana. – But we decided that the research should be conducted as quickly as possible because the government and municipal authorities needed answers to the questions about the expediency of quarantine restrictions and forecasts on the impact of lockdown on the economy as soon as possible. By the way, when we had submitted the project, we thought we had about a year to implement it. But the time frame was “narrowed” to three months, so we put all other issues to a halt and focused on this particular research.
Don’t panic!
Tatiana Vasilieva told, that in March 2020 in the Sumy region there had been very few cases of Covid-19, but quarantine in the region was as strict as in the whole country. Small business had been on the verge of bankruptcy (losses to the economy of the country, region and individual families had been huge). And scientists had begun to estimate: is it possible to make restrictions differentiated, to impose strict quarantine in some areas, and softer in others?
Besides, in the first months of the pandemic, no one understood clearly why morbidity and mortality differed from one region to another. Migration was observed in many areas, people went to work from the west and east. The statistics changed rapidly: in the beginning, most cases were reported in the western regions, later the “coronavirus relay” was picked up by Kharkiv and Sumy regions. Scientists have decided to investigate: perhaps the history of each region may condition certain reasons why people are sick more or less. And objectively calculate how the environment, migration processes, the level of economic development (when people can afford prevention, etc.) and so on affect the growth of the disease. And also to find out whether there are diseases in the regions that, “superimposed” on the coronavirus, worsen the course of the disease.
It was necessary to quickly conduct a huge array of calculations. Researchers have analyzed public health patterns for more than twenty major classes of disease, as well as many social, economic, and environmental determinants. Based on spatial nonlinear models, they constructed “retrospective portraits” of the vulnerability of each region of Ukraine to COVID-19.
The “portrait” of the economy through neural networks
In the national context, scientists were exploring other issues. They analyzed the decline in GDP in the first months of the lockdown, as well as the sharp decline in employment. Researchers sought to understand how the economy would have developed if there had been no “levelling” of quarantine restrictions.
– We built neural networks (taking into account the possibility of their “self-learning” and step-by-step “improvement”), simulated the dependence of GDP and unemployment on more than sixty indicators of social and economic development of Ukraine over two periods: 2010 (long before the beginning of the pandemic) and 2020, – explains Tatiana Vasilieva. – Simply put, there were two “curves” of economic development, the gap between which was huge…
Scenarios of the future
The last part of the project is an attempt to predict how the next lockdowns will affect the economy, what figures will the next waves of the pandemic cost.
– We carried out system-dynamic simulation modelling, analyzed the weaknesses of each region, developed scenarios for economic development under different quarantine terms (as well as rigidity, regional binding, etc.), – said the interlocutor. – And most importantly – provided clear recommendations on how to act in a given case.
Analytical reports were sent to all ministries and agencies that make decisions on lockdown. Scientists hope that their research will be useful and help make evidence-based decisions (because the coronavirus does not think to “retreat”!). And also expand the idea of ways to post-pandemic economic recovery.
One of the most important conclusions: the decision to “suspend” the work of institutions in each region should be made differently and very carefully.
When masters take up the cause
The study of scientists from Sumy State University was one of the first (both in our country and in the world in general), which thoroughly analyzed the impact of the pandemic on the economy on human well-being and made clear recommendations to the authorities. Scientists collected indicators from all regions of the country, analyzed the main classes of diseases and economic indicators and built complex neural network models.
This was made possible by the level of qualification of the team: it consists of eight doctors of science: experts in socio-ecological and economic development, social medicine and public health, researchers in the field of economic cybernetics and economic and mathematical modelling.
– Our team has an expert who heads the National Contact Center of the EU Research and Innovation Program “Horizon 2020” (now – “Horizon Europe”), there is a public health specialist, – says Tetyana Vasilieva with pride. – In the treasury of previous achievements of scientists about 230 publications indexed by Scopus and Web of Science databases, more than a hundred monographs, as well as more than sixty foreign internships. The total index of Scopus’s worst scientists is over 65! By the way, although all members of the team are doctors of sciences, some of them are not even forty years old.
I ask Mrs Vasilieva: what advice would she give to researchers who are just planning to submit a project to the NRFU competition recently (and maybe hesitant)?
The researcher replied: I would advise to soberly assess the importance of the idea. The competition in the competition “Science for the Security of Man and Society” was very high, the selection – fierce, won the projects that are important for national security. She also advised not to be afraid to ask if any competition procedure seems unclear.
– We are grateful to the scientists of NRFU, they were constantly “in touch”, consulted, – adds Tetyana Vasilieva. – It is very good that Ukraine has such a tool for financing science!
Svitlana GALATA
